Talking Points Gone Bad

Regardless of what you think of oil prices, this kind of analysis should make us all nervous...this is a GOP piece in response to repeated Democrat claims that there's plenty of land to drill for oil (whether it has some or not) rather than digging in new places.

Dear Colleague,

"If we extrapolate from today’s production rates on federal land and waters, we can estimate that the 68 million acres of leased but currently inactive federal land and waters could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day."

–Democrat Staff, Unofficial House Natural Resources Committee Report

How did the Democrats arrive at these numbers? We asked them for a step by step explanation of their “extrapolation” on June 20th. They have not responded. Given the National importance of this issue, and the fact that the Majority plans to bring legislation based on this curious extrapolation directly to the floor with no hearing and no markup, Republican staff took out their calculators to try to figure it out for themselves.

Here’s what Republican staff discovered: It appears that the Majority staff arrived at their “extrapolation” by assuming that every single acre of every onshore AND offshore lease holds exactly the same amount of oil and gas. And this is now the #1 talking point of the Democrat Leadership.

The premise now established, they went to work in earnest on their beauty of an extrapolation.

Here’s the “science” behind the Democrats’ “extrapolation:
TOTAL NON-PRODUCING ACRES = 67,945,092 ACRES
TOTAL PRODUCING ACRES = 23,752,458 ACRES

Thus, in 2007 there were 2.86 times more Non-Producing Lands than Producing Lands

Now just multiply 2.86 by the amount of oil and gas produced on “producing lands” and voila, you get “4.8 million barrels/day and 44.7 billion cubic feet/day of natural gas.”



This is the “instant coffee” of oil and gas analysis. Why do oil and gas companies invest billions of dollars every year in high-tech exploration equipment and professionals when they could have just read the Natural Resources Committee Democrat Staff report to learn that they’re sitting on 4.8 million barrels of daily oil production!


Here are just a few of the Democratic Leaders standing by this “Instant Coffee” Extrapolation:

"The fact is there are 68 million acres onshore and offshore in the U.S. that are leased by oil companies - open to drilling and actually under lease - but not developed. If oil companies tapped the 68 million federal acres of leased land it would generate an estimated 4.8 million barrels of oil a day - six times what Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would produce at its peak.” – U.S. House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi

“The 68 million acres of leased but stockpiled federal oil and gas lands have the potential to produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day. This would nearly double U.S. oil production and cut oil imports by one-third.” – Rep. Nick Jo Rahall (D-W. Va), press release, June 18, 2008

“Offshore, only 10.5 million of the 44 million leased acres are currently producing oil or gas. These unused areas could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, nearly double current domestic oil production. That would nearly double total U.S. oil production, and is more than six times the estimated potential peak production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).”
– Rep. Mo Hinchey (D-N.Y.), press release, June 12, 2008

“Currently, oil companies are not producing oil or gas on the nearly 68 million acres of federal land already under their control. Offshore, big oil is producing on only about 20 percent of the acres they hold, while onshore, companies are producing on less than 30 percent of the acres they hold. These unused areas could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, nearly double current domestic oil production.” – Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), press release, June 12, 2008

“The 68 million acres of leased but inactive federal land have the potential to produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day. This would nearly double total U.S. oil production, and increase natural gas production by 75 percent. It would also cut U.S. oil imports by more than one-third, reducing America's dependency on foreign oil.” – Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-N.M), press release, June 12, 2008

“The leases represent 68 million acres of federal lands and waters and have the potential to produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day. This amount of energy would nearly double total U.S. oil production, and increase natural gas production by 75 percent. It would also cut U.S. oil imports by more than one-third, reducing America's dependency on foreign oil.” – Rep. Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.), press release, June 18, 2008



“These unused areas could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, nearly double current domestic oil production.” – Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), press release, June 12, 2008

“The President's proposal to open up all off-shore areas to oil and gas drilling is equally unhelpful. The fact is that vast amounts of federal land, on-shore and off-shore, are leased to energy companies for development, but remain undeveloped. There are 68 million acres of leased but inactive federal land that have the potential to produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day.” – Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.), press release – June 18, 2008

“This is in comparison with just 1.5 million acres in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge that some would like to see opened for drilling. Offshore, these companies are producing on only about 20 percent of the acres they hold, while onshore, they are producing on less than 30 percent of the acres held. Estimates indicate that these unused areas could produce an additional 4.8 million barrels of oil and 44.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, nearly double current domestic oil production.” – Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), press release, June 18, 2008

Sincerely,
/s

DON YOUNG

Ranking Republican

Committee on Natural Resources